29. July 3, 2015
28. June 25, 2015
27. June 19, 2015
26. May 29, 2015
25. May 28, 2015
24. May 21, 2015
23. May 15, 2015
22. May 14, 2015
21. April 30, 2015
20. April 24, 2015
19. April 14, 2015
18. April 2, 2015
17. March 27, 2015
- Speaker: Prof. Lee, Lung-fei (the Ohio State University)
- Topic: Some Recent Studies in Spatial Econometrics: Estimation of A Spatial Tobit Model
- Time: 10:00-11:30 am
- Venue: Liangsheng Building
- Abstract: This seminar will present some recent research development and studies in spatial econometrics. Introduce some basic elements of nonlinear asymptotic theories which are useful for spatial econometric estimation issues. We then focus on studies of a Tobit type spatial econometric model and discuss its testing, parameter and nonparameter estimation.
28. June 25, 2015
- Time: 3:00-4:30 pm
- Venue: Liangsheng Building, B253
- Abstract: We present three case studies driven by online, uncertain and massive data. We show how analytical decision models and numerical algorithms can be used to achieve certain optimality: (1) Online allocation rules in E-commerce advertising, where we show how to efficiently allocate of impressions to advertisers in online display advertising. (2) Financial and trading data analysis, where we predict the risk of each type of business transaction from a customer. (3) Service location based on geographic data, where we provide a fast algorithm to partition a convex region on a region into multiple sub-regions such that each piece has two density measurements equalized. Applications include redistricting, surveillance covering, vehicle routing, service region drawing.
27. June 19, 2015
- Speaker: Prof. Miao, Jianjun (Boston University)
- Topic: A Bayesian DSGE Model of Stock Market Bubbles and Business Cycles
- Time: 10:00-11:30 am
- Venue: Liangsheng Building, B127
- Abstract: We present an estimated DSGE model of stock market bubbles and business cycles using Bayesian methods. Bubbles emerge through a positive feedback loop mechanism supported by self-fulfilling beliefs. We identify a sentiment shock which drives the movements of bubbles and is transmitted to the real economy through endogenous credit constraints. This shock explains most of the stock market fluctuations and sizable fractions of the variations in real quantities. It generates the comovement between stock prices and the real economy and is the dominant force behind the internet bubbles and the Great Recession.
26. May 29, 2015
- Speaker: Dr. Fang, Jing (Assistant Professor, HUST)
- Topic: The Rise of China's IQ (Innovation Quotient): Evidence from Firm-level Data
- Time: 10:00--11:30
- Venue: Liangsheng Building, B251
- Abstract: A rising share of world patent applications are now originated from China, but there are concerns this is merely a response to government-set target and is not associated with real changes within firms. This paper examines the relationship between Chinese firm patenting activity and economic performance by building a unique dataset uniting detailed firm balance sheet data with patent application data for the period of 1998-2007. We find strong evidence that increases in patent stock are associated with increases in firm size (output, sales and employment), exports, and more interestingly, labor productivity and total factor productivity (TFP). Event studies based on first-time patentees also show similar effects following initial patent application. Contrary to conventional perception, we find that although state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on average have lower level of TFP, growth in patent stock is associated with significantly higher TFP growth among SOEs compared to their non-state peers, especially after the SOE reform occurred in late 1990s. Our study also highlights the important role of firm dynamics and ownership changes following the SOE reform in shaping this strong association. Breaking down the different types of patent applications shows that this positive relationship is mainly driven by utility model patents, whose technology hurdle is relatively low compared to invention patents.
25. May 28, 2015
- Speaker: Prof. Mirman, Leonard (University of Virginia)
- Topic: On Learning and Growth
- Time: 10:00--11:30
- Venue: Liangsheng Building, B226
- Abstract: We embed learning (without experimentation) in optimal growth. We extend the Mirman-Zilcha results of stochastic optimal growth to the learning case. We use recursive methods to study the effect of learning on the dynamic program by considering the case of iso-elastic utility and linear production, for general distributions of the random shocks and beliefs (i.e., there is no conjugate priors) and for any horizon. We finally address the issue of experimentation by providing a solution to an infinite-horizon optimal dynamic program.
24. May 21, 2015
- Speaker: Asso. Prof. Zhang, Yongchao (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
- Topic: On pure-strategy equilibria in games with correlated information
- Time: 15:30--17:00
- Venue: Liangsheng Building, B226
- Chair: Dr. Sun, Xiang
- Abstract: Aumann (1974) showed that the set of independent objective pure-strategy equilibrium payoffs of a suitably formulated correlated information game coincides with the set of mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium payoffs of the original complete information game. A decisive example of Radner-Rosenthal (1982) questioned the hypothesis of this result. In this paper, we address the criticism, and in resolution, establish the existence of pure-strategy Bayesian-Nash equilibrium in a class of correlated information games. We also show that a saturated information structure is necessary to guarantee the existence of equilibrium in a small class of such games.
23. May 15, 2015
- Speaker: Deng, Xiaohu (University of Memphis)
- Topic: The Real Effects of Short Selling Constraints: Cross-Country Evidence from a Set of Natural Experiments
- Time: 15:30--17:00
- Venue: B253, Liangsheng Building
- Abstract: We identify 13 countries that changed their regulation to allow short selling for the first time since 1990. We use this exogenous change in short selling constraints to study the effect of short selling constraints on stock prices and corporate investments. We find that prices drop, and corporate investment declines. These changes are most pronounced in developed countries. Our results suggest that short selling constraints have a causal effect on stock prices and firms’ real corporate activities. Our paper is the first, to provide evidence of the effect of short selling constraints on prices and investment in an international context.
22. May 14, 2015
- Speaker: Dr. Fan, Haichao (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
- Topic: Trade Liberalization, Demand, and Markups of Multi-Product Firms
- Time: 15:00--17:00
- Venue: B127, Liangsheng Building
- Abstract: This paper studies how multi-product firms reallocate resources across product and destination market via adjusting markups during trade liberalization and how this resource reallocation depends on product demand. We first document the stylized facts that products facing higher demand in general present larger markups, and trade liberalization induces ordinary trade firms (that pay import tariffs to import) to increase product markup more for its products facing higher demand, while this markup adjustment pattern is not significant or even ambiguous for processing trade firms (that are not subject to import tariffs). The firm-product-country specific markup is estimated by modifying the methodology as in De Loecker et al. (2014), and the product-country specific demand is measured by total export revenue of that product to a specific destination by all countries excluding China. We then extend Melitz and Ottaviano (2008) by incorporating the demand heterogeneity at product-destination level and the changes in firm’s importing behavior under trade liberalization. The model predicts that a higher demand attribute induces an incumbent exporter to set a higher markup of the exported product, and input tariff reductions lead to an increase in markup of the exported product. The tariff reduction effect on markup increase is more profound for products facing higher demand attribute. The empirical results using Chinese disaggregate firm-product country data confirm the model predictions and are robust to various econometric specifications. The results also show that the aforementioned effect of input tariff reduction only applies to ordinary trade through the adjustment of marginal costs, while the similar pattern does not obtain for processing trade observations.
21. April 30, 2015
- Speaker: Dr. Wan, Guanghua (Asian Development Bank)
- Topic: Urbanizing with Equality Consideration: Theory and Empirics
- Time: 15:00--17:00
- Venue: B127, Liangsheng Building
- Abstract: Urbanization is usually analyzed under efficiency maximization only. What happens if a social planner also considers equity (e.g., income inequality) in addition to efficiency (e.g., income)? This paper develops a two-sector general equilibrium model with labor migration. We find that the consideration of equity eventually results in a higher level of urbanization. Empirical evidence using quasi-experimental data validate the theoretical results. Provincial governments in China that take inequality reduction into consideration are found to be associated with higher urbanization levels than otherwise. This paper thus pro-poses urbanization promotion as a possible solution to manage rising income inequality in developing world.
20. April 24, 2015
- Speaker: Asso. Prof. Lehrer, Steven (Queen's University, New York University - Shanghai)
- Topic: Estimating Context-Independent Treatment Effects in Education Experiments
- Time: 10:00--11:30
- Venue: B247, Liangsheng Building
- Abstract: In this study, we first document that the magnitude of the estimated treatment effect in Project STAR is substantially larger in schools where fewer students were assigned to small classes. The differences in student performance across schools cannot be explained by failure in randomization, other observed school level characteristics, unobserved teacher quality or differences in selective test taking. Further, we show that these achievement gains are driven by students in small classes from schools where fewer students were in small classes. The results are suggestive that there was a proportionate change in motivation or effort by teachers who teach small classes but not in regular classes. Second, we introduce an empirical strategy for experimental studies that aims at disentangling the pure educational effect from a specific treatment from that which is attributable to the interaction between the treatment and the social context in which the experiment takes place. Using minimal structural assumptions we disentangle the estimated treatment effect into components that are context specific and context independent. Our results indicate that between 50-70% of the estimated treatment effect in Project STAR is context specific.
19. April 14, 2015
- Speaker: Dr. Zhou, Junjie (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)
- Topic: Competitive Multi-sided Platforms
- Time: 15:30--17:00
- Venue: B127, Liangsheng Building
- Chair: Dr. Sun, Xiang
- Abstract: This paper provides a model of competition with an arbitrary number of platforms with multi sides. We show the existence and uniqueness of equilibrium prices for any degree of externality among different sides. Under symmetry condition, the equilibrium price for each side can be conveniently decomposed into three parts: cost, premium due to product differentiation, and discount due to cross subsidies. We also explore some comparative statics and investigate the effect of mergers on prices, consumer welfare, firm profit etc.
18. April 2, 2015
- Speaker: Dr. Chang, Chihyun (Shanghai Jiaotong University)
- Topic: China's Financial Deterioration and the Financial Reorganisation of WWI : The Boxer Indemnity, Foreign Debts and National Loans.
- Time: 15:30--17:00
- Venue: B127, Liangsheng Building
- Abstract: China’s declaration of war on Germany and Austria during World War I marks the turning point of modern Chinese history, the first time China stood on the winning side against the Western Powers since 1842. As a member of the Allied Powers, the declaration gave the Chinese government a legitimate excuse to revoke and suspend the payment of the Boxer Indemnities and the loans which China had been paying after the defeat of the Boxer War and the First Sino-Japanese War. This was the immediate benefits generated from the war declaration of World War I. But China’s participation into the War also had another underlying and underestimated meaning, the first time China spontaneously turned to wartime economy. On the one hand, the Tuan Administration could utilise China’s participation into the War to negotiate for tariff revisions; on the other hand, the entry into wartime economy enabled the Tuan Administration to centralise the power to the National Loans Bureau, deputed but still managed by Sir Francis Aglen, and put the Inspectorate General of Customs in charge of some Native Custom House. World War I gave China the best opportunity to reorganise its economic and financial policies after the defeat of the Boxer War.
17. March 27, 2015
- Speaker: Dr. Bian, Yang (University of International Business and Economics)
- Topic: What Drives Housing Dynamics in China? A Sign Restriction VAR Approach
- Time: 15:30--17:00
- Venue: B127, Liangsheng Building
- Abstract: We study housing dynamics in China using vector autoregressions identified with theory-consistent sign restrictions. We study five potential drivers: 1) Population in- creases; 2) a relaxation of credit standards, (for example, due to the shadow banking system); 3) increasing preferences towards housing, (for example, due to a housing bubble, or to housing being a status asset in the marriage market); 4) an increase in the savings rate; and 5) expected productivity progress. Our results show that fundamental shocks (population, credit and productivity) played a major role in the dynamics of house prices and residential investment before 2009. Preference shocks seem especially relevant in the last several years.